Welcome to By 2100!

This Blog is designed to be a Diary of Events illustrating Global Climate Change, and where it will lead.

Commentary is encouraged, but this Blog is not intended for discussion on the Validity of Climate Change.

Monday, January 25, 2010

Polar Ice is Melting - In January!

An absolutely fascinating development - Even I would not have believed this possible!

In the last few days, we show an overall decrease in the icepack - in the dead of winter!

Now, a couple of days, even over an area as large as the Arctic, doesn't prove much about Climate, but it's hard to concieve of such a thing happening at any other time...


  1. Bruce,

    Funny I don't see anywhere on the two bb's that you and I go to on occasion where the denial crew has happened to mention this or the fact that it has been way above normal in the US for about the last week.

    Funny how that happens.

  2. Nope, you're not likely to see either of these points on those or many other BB's.

    I visited one of the infamous Denier sites, and someone had posted how warm the Arctic is right now... He was ignored...

    He persisted...

    He then got a torrent of abuse and nonsense about how there weren't enough measurement sites, and how the science is biased, all the usual stuff...

    Oddly enough, in this case the one valid point they could have made, that a week or so proves nothing, never came up.

  3. Any more on this, Brew? As the climate continually 'weirdens', I would expect some of the cold places to become even colder, as the warm get warmer or the dry become dryer. Yet, this does not seem to be observable. I suspect the amount of warming precludes widespread cooling on surfaces such as polar ice. Keep us informed (as you usually do!)

    Also, of course the Haiti earthquake along with the much less published activity in Samoa, makes me wonder again if my theory of tectonic instability would be the upshoot of changing weight of water on the ocean beds. Any studies that you know of?

    On an aside, I watched the State of the Union speech by Pres Obama tonight. Interesting reaction from the gathered Congress when he mentioned that some still doubted the 'overwhelming science' of global climate change. Plus, someone off camera obviously made a snide comment when he claimed that the USA had become a leader in climate change action. As with all politicians, I think he went down some roads paved with hopeful thinking, but I loved his tough talk to the ones in Congress who only work at making obstacles and confusion. What a different speech and different speaker than the pablum and cheer leading of the last decade!

    Again as you know, I'm totally pessimistic about GCC prognostications. However, is there a sudden lack of observable news, or are the scientists actually being self-preserving and suddenly quiet after Copenhagen. You also know I predicted a huge sucking silence when our global leaders again dropped the ball of real action and real planning. I didn't actually believe myself then, but now I'm beginning to wonder where the most active and persistent voices have gone? Like Y2K, are we winning the fight, or is this new silence only the sound of survival cabins being built in the wilderness?

  4. Lon;

    I have published somewhat less news recently for two reasons:

    I am debating just where to go with my posts in general... There is very little activity here, as you can see. I don't know if it's the blog format or the fact that if there's no opposition, no matter how ignorant, the entire blog becomes rather dull.

    The second reason is that there really is less going on climate wise - early to mid winter and summer tend to be relatively quiet, as the heat/cold have not reached their maximums, plus a lot of scientists publish their season's findings at the end of the period.

    Also, Copenhagen has slowed down a lot of political debate in many countries. As you're probably well aware, there was no binding ANYTHING signed, but there was a general, rather soft agreement. Now each country has to decide just what to do internally.

  5. As for the supposition that Climate, as in rising ocean levels, will have an effect on tectonic events, I tend to agree with you, it should have some sort of relationship.

    My personal view is that the first serious demonstration of this action will be in either Greenland or Antartica, where the massive weight of all that ice will disappear, and the Earth's crust will rise in response.

    But there has been very little speculation on this issue in the scientific community.

    I had heard that it was being studied, in Norway and here in Alberta at one point, linked to withdrawl of so much oil, etc. in some areas. (Changing weight is changing weight, no matter the cause.) But the speculation has all died down.

    I think that is partially because of the "Skeptical" community jumping all over anything that is not 100% backed up recently, making scientists even more gunshy than usual about guessing out loud.



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